Violence increased in 3 of the 5 regions defined by Peña Nieto's government security strategy:
2018 is the most violent year in Mexico, not only because of the number of homicides, but because of the extent of the same. The increase in murders in the country is recorded in 27 of the 32 states and even though the balance left by December is not yet known, it is clear that 15 entities will reach a record level of homicides.
Among the states where homicides have increased, according to the data on the criminal incidence of the National Public Security System , there are alarming cases like the one in Guanajuato or Quintana Roo, where homicides grew more than 100% in the last year alone. There are also other entities where the deterioration has been progressive as Baja California, where the level of murders from 2013 to date was multiplied by three.
In Enrique Peña Nieto's administration, the strategy to reduce homicidal violence focused on dividing the country into five different regions. The total data of the sexennium reveal that homicides did not decrease but increased in three of those five regions.And in one of those that decreased, the Northwest region, the decrease in crimes is due solely to the drop in homicides in Chihuahua , while in the other entities in the area the violence increased.
As it was published last Friday, from January to November of 2018 a total of 31,285 people have been murdered in Mexico, and it is foreseen once you have the December registration, closing with a total of between 34,000 and 35,000 victims and with almost 30,000 files of investigation initiated by this crime.
This means that, at the national level, the homicides rebounded in the country during the sexennium approximately 65%.
A generalized cancer:
In the last two years, the government of President Enrique Peña Nieto acknowledged that the violence in the country had increased after the data during the first part of the sexennium pointed to a decline. However, he and his security cabinet officials - (headed by the current senator Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong) insisted that it was a phenomenon limited to certain regions of the national territory but not generalized.
The official data of criminal incidence show the opposite. 2018 will conclude with an increase in homicides in 27 of the 32 entities, that is, in 84% of all of them. And not only that: in 15 of them, that is, in almost half of the states, there will be record levels of violence.
As already mentioned among the most dramatic cases is Baja California , entity feminicides. Even though it is necessary to know the December registration, the total accumulated this year already exceeds the total number of cases of homicide of 2017 that was 2,094 cases.
A relevant fact is that in 2013 this state accumulated 775 homicides, but year after year the number was increased until reaching the current level. This amounts to, at least, an increase of 234% of murders in that entity. Baja California is one of the states that will close with record levels of violence.
This criminal growth in Baja California even caused that, in 2018, this entity has displaced Guerrero as the second with the highest homicide rate, and is located only below Colima.
Another state in crisis is Guanajuato. This year this entity already accumulates 2, 287 folders for murders committed in its territory (homicides and femicides) in 2018. It is more than double of all those committed in 2017 that were 1,096 cases. Compared with the 641 homicides in Guanajuato in 2013, the numbers point to a growth of almost 300% in homicidal violence in this entity throughout the current six-year term.
In a similar situation is Puebla that from January to November 2018 accumulates 1,049 murders and feminicides. Even in the absence of the balance left by December this total of murders already exceeds any full year of which there is registration in the entity. In comparison with the first year of this sexennium, the entity aims for a 180% increase in the incidence of this crime at the end of 2018.
Other states that, like the three mentioned, will close 2018 with a record in their level of murders are Mexico City, State of Mexico, Baja California Sur, Sonora, San Luis Potosi, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Zacatecas, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan.
In as much, the entities that also close 2018 with an increase of homicides with respect to 2017 but without reaching their historical maximums, are Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Nayarit, Guerrero, Morelos, Campeche, Chiapas and Veracruz.
One of the few positive balances is that the entity with the highest homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018, Colima, are among the five where murders have decreased this year. The other three four with losses are Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Durango and Queretaro.
The government of President Enrique Peña Nieto attributed part of the deterioration of security in the country to the lack of coordination among authorities. To solve this situation, his national security cabinet divided the country into five regions so that, in each one, targeted strategies with intelligence support were established, aimed at reducing crime rates.
With the data of November, the full balance of the sexennium can be made regarding this plan. The reality is that in three of the five regions it ended worse than it was started.
The most dramatic case is that of the region that was called "Occidente" and where Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit, Querétaro and Zacatecas were included. These states accumulated in the presidency of Peña Nieto 27,105 cases of homicide. Compared to the 14,908 cases registered in the six years of Felipe Calderón's six-year term, it is an increase of more than 81% in murders in this region.
That is to say, in the Western region, not only was the goal of decreasing homicides not met, but these rose and almost doubled.
In the Central region there was an increase of almost 39% of the homicides in the presidency of Peña Nieto. In this region, composed of Mexico City, State of Mexico, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla and Tlaxcala, there were 39, 474 folders and manslaughter investigations from 2013 to 2018, well above the 28 ,473 registered in the Calderón government.
And in the region known as Southeast with Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatan included, the incidence went from 13, 587 homicides in the Calderón government, to 18,380 in the Peña government. It is an increase in absolute numbers of 35% of cases.
One of the two regions where there is a decrease in murders is in the Northwest, where they passed 29, 469 to 27,535 from one sexennium to another. However, the numbers show that this fall was caused by Chihuahua, where homicidal violence dropped by more than 45%. However, in three of the five states in this region, the total number of homicides actually grew (Baja California, Baja California Sur and Sonora).
Where there is a reduction in a more general way is in the Northeast region composed of Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Leon (in all of them killed homicides), San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas . The final balance in this area was 13,569 cases in the government of Peña Nieto, almost 17% less than the previous six years.
Another fact that exemplifies the failure of the strategy against homicides in the previous administration is as follows. Of the 32 federal entities in the country, there are only seven registered in the government of President Enrique Pela Nieto less cases of homicide than in the six years of Felipe Calderón. These are Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Leon, Aguascalientes and Nayarit.
Note: I now temporarily leave you with all these delightful statistics and am hitting the road. PAZ !